Posted on March 15th, 2019
The Champions League Quarter Finals draw took place this morning. We now know which teams can face each other for all remaining fixtures in the competition. We have updated our Champions League predictions to include the fixtures and progression tree from the draw.
The match predictions for individual fixtures are shown below. The most one-sided match is expected to be Liverpool vs Porto and the most evenly matched fixture is expected to be Tottenham vs Man City.
Interestingly, none of the 4 strongest teams are facing each other in the quarter finals, so there’s a reasonable chance that the 4 strongest teams all make it to the Semi-Finals, though the chances of this happening are not particularly high. We expect the chances of all 4 favourites to make it through to be 29%.
Below is the updated progression likelihood for each team. Barcelona are favourites to win the competition, followed by Liverpool, Man City and Juventus.
This is first time in 10 years that the Quarter Finals has 4 English clubs in it and the aggregated chance of an English team winning the Champions League this season is just over 50%. The chance of seeing at least 1 English club in the final is 82% and the chance of an all-English final is 22%. The UK may be keen to leave European institutions, but their football clubs are doing their best to remain in this one!