Champions League forecasts

Posted on September 17th, 2018   

The group stages of the Champions League is set to kick-off tomorrow.

A summary of our Champions League forecasts is shown below. The team most likely to win the competition is Barcelona (20.3%), with Bayern Munich (18.4%) and Real Madrid (16.1%) being the next most likely teams to win the competition.

Looking at the progression chances split by each group shows that all groups have at least one clear progression favourite, with >80% chance of progression to the round of 16. The fight for the second progression spot is toughest in Group E, where Benfica, AEK and Ajax are closely matched. Group F is also relatively competitive. Porto got very lucky with the group stage draw since they’re very likely to progress to the round of 16 (80.9% chance) despite only being in the bottom half of teams in terms of team strength. Napoli, on the other hand, got the short end of the stick since they’re the 15th best team in the competition but only have a 29.8% chance of going through to the round of 16.

Finally, forecasts for individual matches can be found below. Real Madrid vs Victoria Plzen is the most one-sided fixture in the group stage. From the big teams in the tournament, the Liverpool vs PSG fixtures are the most evenly matched.

It will be interesting to see how far Man City and Liverpool can carry the banner of English football on the European stage.